Premium League: Nõmme Kalju 0 is worth trying against Flora

Our previous preview (Flora vs Tammeka) was fairly accurate: the match did end level, and Tammeka scored two goals — confirming both our read on the handicap and the Tammeka team goals over 1 pick.

Flora and Nõmme Kalju meet in the Premium League tomorrow. Unlike last time, where we saw Flora as weaker against Tammeka, we again see Flora as the weaker side here — Kalju look like the stronger opponent in this matchup.

Esono could be a key player for Kalju — his speed showed well in their last match against Levadia, contributing a goal and an assist. On top of that, Kalju's top scorer Männilaan made a comeback after a long injury layoff, which is an extra boost for the team.

The two sides have already met three times this season: 1-0, 0-1 and 3-1 from Kalju's perspective — overall fairly even, but the numbers lean slightly in Kalju's favour.

The clearest difference between the two teams is defensively: Flora have conceded 32 goals this season, Kalju just 22 — the league's second-best figure after Levadia's 20. Flora's back line continues to struggle with injuries.

On the draw-no-bet market, epicbet prices Flora at 1.82 and Kalju at 1.92 — the market sees this match as essentially even. In our view, Kalju 0 on the Asian handicap carries slight value given Flora's injury problems.

Yes, Sorga has joined the club, but it's unclear exactly what form he's in — he hasn't played much recently, and Flora have generally been forced to rely on a lot of young players. In our view, the fair line is closer to Kalju -0.25 — a slight favourite — rather than the dead-even price the market is offering.

Kalju 0 (Asian handicap) is clearly worth trying tomorrow. If the fair line is really closer to Kalju -0.25, the price on 0 offers extra value the market hasn't priced in yet.

As always — it's worth checking the confirmed lineups before betting.