Premium League: Levadia -1 looks like a safe pick against Paide

Paide and Levadia meet in the Premium League today. On paper Levadia are the clear favourites — their squad depth and Paide's major absences in defence both point clearly in Levadia's favour.

The season's first meeting ended 2-2, though Levadia were the heavily dominant side and only got the equaliser from a stoppage-time penalty. The following meeting went 3-1 to Levadia — the match was already decided in the first half.

The most recent, third meeting finished 4-1 to Levadia — and Levadia used several backup players in that game, while Paide were out with essentially a full-strength lineup.

Levadia significantly strengthened their attack over the summer and their squad is very deep. As an extra bonus, Mihkel Ainsalu returned from a groin injury surprisingly quickly.

Paide are missing their starting right-back, starting centre-back, and the backup centre-back who's been playing on the left, plus their midfield captain and a forward for this match. Paide have made additions up front too, but the season overall has shown their defence to be thin — making careless mistakes and playing passively.

On Paide's side, Oskar Hõim, Pedro Andrade and Abdourahman Badamosi are suspended, while Edgar Tur, Kristofer Piht, Nikita Baranov, Romet Nigula and Gerdo Juhkam are dealing with injuries.

Levadia only have Victory Iboro suspended, while Mihkel Ainsalu made a surprisingly quick return from his groin injury.

Levadia -1 handicap is currently priced at 1.70 — given Paide's major absences in defence and Levadia's squad depth, that looks like a fair to slightly value-laden price to us.

Levadia -1 handicap (1.70) looks like a safe pick today — given Paide's major defensive absences and Levadia's squad depth, Levadia should win by at least two goals.

As always — it's worth checking the confirmed lineups before betting.