Flora vs Levadia: Levadia -1 handicap at 1.80

Levadia clinched the title with six rounds to spare: after 30 games they have 75 points (23 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss, goals 82:21). Flora are second on 55 points (18 wins, 1 draw, 11 losses, goals 59:41) and are fighting for silver. Paide played and won yesterday, so they are on 54 points with one game more played (31) and are just 1 point behind. A Flora win today would make it a four-point gap, a loss would leave it at one point.

In comments to Soccernet, Levadia president Viktor Levada said the club will field its best squad in the derby and does not intend to simply play the game out. After a title is secured rotation is always a risk, and this promise reduces it.

It will not be a completely full-strength side though: Wendell (the team's top scorer, 17 goals) and Joseph Saliste are suspended. Abraham Nwankwo was hurt in a game at the weekend and Hubert Liival remains injured. Wendell and Saliste are key players, but replaceable.

Levadia's home league games this season: 15 played, 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss, goals 47:7, a 73% win rate. The only defeat came against Flora on 28 June, 1-2. A. Le Coq Arena has a natural grass pitch.

Across the whole season, Levadia have won 15 of 30 games by two goals or more (50%), 8 wins by exactly one goal, 6 draws and 1 loss.

Last five league games (most recent first): Kuressaare away 0-2 (loss), Vaprus home 3-2, Nõmme United away 3-2, Narva Trans away 2-2 and Nõmme Kalju home 2-1.

The wins have come with a lot of luck: Flora have scraped recent wins together with late goals and have been wildly lucky in doing so. The 0-2 against Kuressaare was completely dreadful, with not a single good chance created during the whole game.

Over the season Flora have lost 11 of 30, including at home to Paide twice (1-2), Kuressaare 2-3, Nõmme United 1-2 and Kalju 0-1. Flora have conceded 41 goals, Levadia just 21.

The derbies this season have gone both ways: Levadia won 4-0 on 19 April and 3-1 on 13 June, Flora won 2-1 on 28 June. Flora are the only team to have beaten Levadia this season.

Flora have two injured defenders: Nikita Kalmõkov and Airon Kollo. Sergei Zenjov is a doubt.

Players who featured in yesterday's UEFA Youth League game may make the matchday squad, but should not be expected in the starting lineup. That applies for example to Marten Kukkonen, who has recently been a regular starter.

It is worth checking the list before kick-off, as lineups only become known about an hour before the game.

Epicbet offers Levadia -1 handicap at 1.80. A win by two goals or more is a full win, a one-goal win returns the stake, and a draw or Flora win loses.

Why: Levadia have won 15 games by two goals or more, with 7 games ending in a draw or a loss, so a two-goal margin has landed in 68% of games where the bet is settled. The break-even at 1.80 is about 56%. On top of that Flora have two injured defenders, Zenjov is a doubt and they have lost 11 games.

Risks: the absence of Wendell and Saliste (though both are replaceable), a promise from the president does not guarantee 100% intensity for 90 minutes, and Flora have shown they can come up big in derbies. Eight Levadia wins have been by exactly one goal, which returns the stake on this line.

The stake is small: Wendell, Levadia's top scorer, is missing, otherwise the stake would be bigger.

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We have no faith in Flora: the defence does not hold, the goalkeeper lets in easy shots and the attacking sharpness is questionable. The places are essentially settled and Levadia are officially champions, so they come into the game on a wave of good emotion.

This is an idea, not a guarantee. 18+. Always bet responsibly and only with money you can afford to lose. Epicbet's terms apply.