Big preview: Estonian Premium Liiga final round – what to bet on

The last Premium Liiga round decides not only relegation but also the European places. All five matches kick off on Saturday, 7 November at 12:30 (Estonian time). Levadia have already secured the league title and earn the right to play in the UEFA Champions League qualifiers. The teams finishing second and third play in the UEFA Conference League qualifiers. The Estonian Cup winner also gets a Conference League qualifying spot. If the cup winner has already secured a European place through the league table, that spot goes to the team that finishes fourth.

The Estonian Cup quarter-finalists are now known: Narva Trans, Nõmme United, Elva, Tammeka, Kuressaare, Harju, Levadia and Flora. Paide and Kalju, currently 2nd and 4th in the table, are already out of the cup. If Levadia or Flora win the cup, the team that finishes 4th in the league also gets into Europe.

Kalju finish 4th if they don't beat Levadia.

Flora finish 4th if they don't beat Paide and Kalju beat Levadia.

Paide finish 4th if they lose to Flora and Kalju beat Levadia. Paide and Kalju would then both be on 63 points, but Kalju have the better goal difference in the head-to-head games.

Kuressaare finish 9th and have to play the promotion/relegation play-offs if they don't beat Nõmme United.

Nõmme United finish 9th if they lose to Kuressaare and Vaprus don't lose to Tammeka.

Vaprus finish 9th if they lose to Tammeka and Kuressaare beat Nõmme United.

Narva Trans are already relegated from the Premium Liiga and have no motivation left. Already in the last match several youngsters were in the starting lineup, and the same rotation can be expected in this game. Stanislav Agaptšev and German Šlein are out through suspension; both have been key players for the team. Tomas Berardozzi and Sergei Kondrattsev return from suspension.

Harju have nothing left to play for, but they have had a very strong autumn and a secure 6th place. Joseph Ndakala returns from suspension. Imre Kartau and Karl-Erik Ennuste are injured, but they are not key players.

In the end, this match is meaningless for both teams. It is worth checking the lineups one hour before kick-off, since they will decide how seriously each side takes the game.

One of the most exciting matches of the round. In the table United are 7th (37 pts), Vaprus 8th (37 pts) and Kuressaare 9th (36 pts), and 9th place plays promotion/relegation play-offs against Esiliiga's 2nd-placed team. According to the EJL regulations, when teams are level on points the head-to-head points decide first. United have 9 points against 3 against Vaprus, so on equal points United are ahead of Vaprus. Kuressaare can only escape 9th place with a win; a draw is not enough.

If United lose to Kuressaare, Vaprus must lose to Tammeka for United to stay out of 9th place. If Vaprus draw or win, United finish 9th and play the play-offs. If United draw or win, their place is safe and Kuressaare finish 9th.

For Kuressaare, Rico Piil returns from suspension and Johann Vahermägi has recovered, while Mihhail Džemesjuk is still injured. United have Dacosta Owusu injured.

The odds make United slight favourites. United have started playing very well in recent rounds.

Pre-match betting would be pointless here. The betting idea could be a late over, at any score. The result matters for both sides and United could also drop to 9th place, so the game doesn't go quiet even if it's level late on.

Kalju badly need a win: only a win secures 3rd place, while a draw or a loss leaves them 4th. That can also lead to overcommitment, as Kalju may take too many risks and leave space at the back.

Levadia have played the last few rounds without pressure, but they have a chance to set a historic record as the champions with the biggest points gap. The trophy is traditionally handed out in the last match, and Levadia may still be motivated to win, since they would want to finish with a win when receiving the trophy.

For Levadia, Tanel Tammik and Nikoloz Kutateladze return from suspension. The club has not given official information, but unofficially Aleksandr Zakarljuka and Kaua Davi are injured and Mollo Bessala has been unavailable because of paperwork. For Kalju, Alex Boronilštšikov returns from suspension. Unofficially, Bogdan Vaštšuk is close to a return, while Daniil Sõtšugov and Oleksandr Musolitin are injured.

Betting idea: a late over when Kalju are not leading (level or behind), since Kalju need the win. If Kalju lead, the late over is off the table.

Paide have a lot of absentees. Pedro Andrade returns from suspension. Henri Anier, Gerdo Juhkam and Modou Sohna (who has had a meniscus operation) are out long-term, and Marko Meerits, Kristofer Piht, Edgar Tur and Kristofer Käit are not fit either. Nikita Baranov and Romet Nigula have been able to train with the squad but are doubts. Henrik Ojamaa returns from injury for the last match of his career.

On Flora's side Erik Sorga is out, Rauno Alliku's season is over because of a facial injury, and Matvei Jekimov and Mark Hendrik Kukk are also out.

The match is important for both: if Paide lose to Flora and Kalju beat Levadia, Paide finish 4th. If Flora don't beat Paide and Kalju beat Levadia, Flora finish 4th.

The lines are already at 0 everywhere. We see value in Flora 0, since they need the win more. Paide are happy with a draw: it gives them 64 points, which Kalju (63 at most) can't overtake. Flora should dominate the match, although that also depends on Kalju's result. We believe Paide will play for the draw and on the counter-attack.

A late over is possible in this match, but only if Kalju are leading against Levadia. If Kalju are not leading, you could even bet on the draw late in the game, if you can see that neither team is taking risks.

Tammeka have nothing left to play for in the table, as 5th place is secure. Marius Vister and Rasmus Kallas are injured.

For Vaprus, Tristan Pajo returns from suspension, but Kevin Kauber is suspended. Markkus Seppik is 50-50. Mark Anders Lepik remains out injured and Sander Kõlvart is in military service. Kerdo Kutsar received a suspension for the reserve team.

A draw suits Vaprus: with a draw they are safe and don't finish 9th. They simply have to defend, and a counter-attacking game suits them as well.

The lines in this match are at 0 and are obviously skewed by motivation. The odds on Vaprus +0.25 and +0.5 are low, so we don't see value there. There may be slight value in the draw, since a draw is fine for Vaprus.

The other idea is a late over: if Vaprus are behind and Kuressaare are leading United, Vaprus would drop to 9th place and have to equalise. In that situation the game is open late on.

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