September results: fewer bets, but +50.6% ROI

September came together with just 7 bets — a lot fewer than August. One week was lost to the international break, which paused Estonian and nearby leagues and cut down the number of matches available. Two more Estonia matches are still coming (against Luxembourg and Iceland, both in early October), so the effect isn't fully over yet. Despite that, the month brought in +5.57 units of profit on 11 units staked, for a +50.6% ROI.

When matches are scarce, it's tempting to bet just for the sake of it. In September we held the line — 7 bets means we skipped matches whenever we didn't have a clear enough read on why one team should be better than the other. 5 wins and 1 half-win (Legion +0.25, Bet365, +0.43) out of seven bets shows that being selective paid off.

JK Tallinna Kalev vs Flora U21 (0, 1:0) lost on the Asian handicap — Kalev were favourites, but Flora's young side held firm. Narva Trans U21's first-half handicap was pushed (a draw) — Narva Trans actually fielded essentially their full first-team squad, which made them the clearly stronger side, but unfortunately that bet still only returned a push (void). Two different outcomes, but both are a reminder that even with solid analysis, football always leaves room for surprises.

The international break isn't quite over yet — two more Estonia matches are coming (against Luxembourg and Iceland, both in early October) — but after that the leagues return in full and the number of bets should pick back up. September showed that even in a quiet month with few matches, profitability doesn't have to suffer as long as you stick to the same principle: only bet when you know why.